Document Details

Document Type : Thesis 
Document Title :
FORECASTING THE DEMAND OF DOMESTIC SECTORS THAT CONTRIBUTE 80% OF SAUDIA DOMESTIC CAPACITY
توقع حجم الطلب في القطاعات التي تشكل 80% من حجم مقاعد الرحلات الداخلية للخطوط الجوية السعودية
 
Subject : Faculty of Engineering 
Document Language : Arabic 
Abstract : The study objectives are met. Historical monthly demand for SADUIA for past 6 years was examined, analyzed, and then forecasted. Moreover, historical monthly data of all influencing factors including economic, demographic, and airline servicing factors were presented and analyzed. In the beginning of the study, we provided a lengthy and detailed introduction for the paper topic and its objectives, current situation of the domestic market in the airline, the methods currently used for estimating the size of local demand, and finally the importance of analyzing and forecasting the air travel demand data for the airline and its impact on the strategic planning to achieve the objectives. A review of old and recent literature and studies on similar topics, and contains the methods previously used to predict demand in air transport Industry. In addition, we discussed the most important factors that have been studied and confirmed to have an impact on the air travel demand, as well as identifying the scientific methods used to forecast demand solely and taking into account the factors affecting demand. From research, we concluded that each sector has it own behavior to identify the best forecasting methods. In this study, a statistical analysis of the past 6 years demand data for the domestic market for SAUDIA, as well as the factors affecting the demand size for the same period were conducted. The domestic market traffic monthly data from 2013– 2018 has been statistically analyzed and plotted. Analysis showed that the average annual growth for the past 6 years was around 2 %. Later, time series and stepwise regression analysis were used to find the best technique for each selected sector. Moreover, this paper provided several forecasting techniques and accuracy measures has been developed and compared to each other. The forecasting techniques that been developed are: Trend Analysis (Linear - Exponential Growth - Quadratic), Winter (Additive - Multiplicative), and Exponential Smoothing (Single - Douple) and multi regression analysis where the standard Accuracy Measures that been used are: MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation) and MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). 
Supervisor : Dr. Mohamed Balbaid 
Thesis Type : Master Thesis 
Publishing Year : 1441 AH
2020 AD 
Added Date : Wednesday, June 24, 2020 

Researchers

Researcher Name (Arabic)Researcher Name (English)Researcher TypeDr GradeEmail
عبدالرحمن عدنان العقلAl-Aqel, Abdul Rahman AdnanResearcherMaster 

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